The actual reserves are to be refined. “China’s shale gas is difficult to commercialize within 10 years.†The China Securities Journal reporter found in actual investigations in Chongqing that the actual reserves have yet to be clarified, the mining technology is still immature, and the pipeline monopoly is hindered. Transportation, economic difficulties, conventional gas and many other unfavorable factors, if shale gas has to support half of the domestic natural gas supply, there are still many long roads to go. "At least, I have learned that several major oil companies are not as optimistic about the amount of domestic shale gas resources. From the experience of the United States, the amount of shale gas resources in the United States is constantly being adjusted. There is no certain It is difficult to clarify the status of resources by drilling wells.†According to Liu Yijun, a professor of natural gas issues at the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, China’s shale gas development is still in the stage of resource evaluation, and the judgment of resources is mostly based on the mechanism of accumulation. Instead of based on large-scale well drilling exploration, it is impossible to deduce the exact reserves of shale gas in China. Among the four major questions about the commercialization of shale gas, whether the amount of shale gas resources is really in the assessment is the precondition for all other problems. If the amount of resources is sufficient, then the problems of mining, transportation and sale, even if there are difficulties, there is still room for improvement. Once the amount of resources is insufficient, the latter three issues will not be discussed. On March 1 this year, the national shale gas resource potential survey and evaluation report released by the Ministry of Land and Resources showed that after preliminary evaluation, the potential of shale gas geological resources in China was 134.42 trillion cubic meters, and the potential of recoverable resources was 25.08 trillion. Cubic meters (excluding the Qinghai area). The 25 trillion cubic meters of recoverable volume is very exciting for the industry, while the US Energy Information Administration estimates are more optimistic. The agency estimates that China's shale gas reserves exceed that of any other country, with recoverable reserves of 1275 trillion cubic feet (equivalent to 36 trillion cubic meters). At current consumption levels, these reserves are sufficient for more than 300 years in China. In the interview, the reporter learned that at present, PetroChina has optimized four advantageous blocks in Weiyuan, Changning, Zhaotong and Fushun-Yongchuan in the southern Sichuan and northern Hebei regions; Sinopec preferred Jiannan and Huangping in the east, south and northeast of Sichuan. Favorable block operations; CNOOC carried out preliminary work on shale gas exploration in areas such as Fujian and Zhejiang; extended oil to conduct shale gas operation in Yan'an area of ​​Shaanxi; Zhonglian coal proposed Shouyang and Wuyuan in Qinshui Basin, Shanxi And Jincheng three shale gas favorable areas. Wang Gangyi, director of the Information Department of Sinopec Jianghan Oilfield, told China Securities Journal that Jianghan Oilfield has six shale gas wells in the Daanzhai shale gas demonstration area in Fuling. At present, the 2-2FH well on the front page has been drilled to a depth of 3,300 meters. Ignition out. The remaining five wells are also partially vented. PetroChina's pace is faster. Mao Zefeng, senior assistant secretary of CNPC's board of directors, has revealed that PetroChina has drilled about 20 gas wells in the shale area in the southern part of Sichuan Province. The average daily output of the wellhead that has been out of gas is above 10,000 cubic meters. Tang Tingchuan, director of the Development Strategy Division of the China Petroleum Policy Research Office, told the China Securities Journal that the daily output of a well in a Fushun-Yongchuan block could reach 430,000 cubic meters. PetroChina's goal is to produce more than 1 billion cubic meters of shale gas in 2015. Currently, the southwest oil and gas fields are ready for commercial sale. The China Securities Journal reporter learned that the expansion of oil in the shale gas development in Shaanxi has also been harvested. According to the latest operation of the above-mentioned operation area, there is no doubt that a large amount of shale gas resources are stored in the Sichuan Basin, the eastern Hubei Province, the western Hubei, the Xiaoxiang, the Ordos Basin and the Tarim Basin. According to the relevant person in charge of the Address Exploration Department of the Ministry of Land and Resources, 77% of the favorable block area and 80% of the resource potential of China's shale gas recoverable resources are in the existing oil and gas block. China's current oil and gas development system determines that a block can only have one development subject. Therefore, favorable blocks of shale gas are mainly concentrated in the hands of state-owned enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Yanchang Oilfield. These companies have many years of conventional natural gas extraction data and have a basic understanding of shale gas reserves within the block. However, the shale gas block of the Ministry of Land and Resources for social bidding is mainly located at the edge of the above-mentioned block, and is a “raw place†that has never been explored and developed before. Therefore, even if these blocks are judged to have abundant resources according to the accumulation mechanism, shale gas may run away during many years of crustal changes. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the actual amount of resources after a huge investment in exploration. “The exploration investment per square kilometer is at least 30,000 yuan. Whether or not there is resources will be the most important factor in determining the return on exploration.†According to industry insiders. According to estimates by the US Energy Information Administration, some people in the industry pointed out that from the perspective of the mechanism of accumulation, China's shale gas resources cannot be the world's number one, because China's conventional natural gas resources are not the world's first. At the International Shale Gas Conference held in Chongqing a few days ago, Tang Tingchuan believed that China's shale gas development should be based on reality. In contrast, coalbed methane is superior to shale gas in terms of resources, technology, safety and environmental protection. Therefore, coalbed methane should be the focus in the near future. "Shale gas is a depleted ore. The United States is forced out. Now it is time to fool China. It is difficult to commercialize shale gas in China within 10 years," he warned. Exploration and mining technology needs to be improved Even if the domestic shale gas recoverable reserves are as much as expected, can China's existing mining technology be able to successfully exploit the proven shale gas? The "Shale Gas Development Plan (2011-2015)" proposes that by 2015 China's shale gas will initially achieve large-scale production, with an annual output of 6.5 billion cubic meters. By 2020, the annual output will reach 100 billion cubic meters. Shale gas has geological features such as “low permeability, low porosity, low abundance and low pressureâ€, and the development technology is more difficult than conventional natural gas. According to Tang Tingchuan, the United States played the first shale gas well in 1821. After 180 years, it gradually broke through in technology. China's shale gas mining started not only later than the United States, but also deeper resources than the United States. It is understood that the shale gas burial depth in the United States is about 900 meters on average, while the figure in China is 2000-3000 meters. As far as the Sichuan Basin is concerned, the entire Sichuan Basin is basically a mountainous terrain, while the United States and Canada are all beaches of Pingchuan. The reporter learned from the site of the Daanzhai shale gas field in Fuling, Sinopec. Because the geological conditions are too complicated, the stratum is quite hard. The depth of drilling on the site is only 50-60 meters per day, and the drill bit needs 2-3 days to replace one. The above objective situation determines that the technical difficulty of shale gas mining in China is much higher than that of the United States. According to industry insiders, the core technology of shale gas mining is horizontal wells and staged fracturing. With the improvement of China's oil and gas field mining technology, horizontal wells have been widely used in several major oil companies. This technology has been basically mastered. At present, there are still some difficulties in the comprehensive roll-out of staged fracturing technology. In terms of exploration, 3D seismic identification technology is needed. Although some units in China have mastered 3D seismic identification technology, it is still difficult to promote it in a large area in the short term. How to master more shale gas mining technology? In an interview with China Securities Journal, James H. Simpson, general manager of Platts Electric Power Group, said that Chinese companies can obtain the corresponding technology through cooperation with foreign companies. Li Liang, director of the Policy Research Office of China United Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd., suggested that the equipment, instruments and special tools that the state should introduce for shale gas exploration and development operations are exempt from import duties and import value-added tax. However, Liu Yijun believes that even if the relevant technology of the United States is obtained in a similar way, the American technology is not as mature as imagined, and there is a problem of acclimatization in China. “Foreign companies have a lot of wariness against China because Chinese companies have strong learning ability. Once they cooperate, they are likely to lose their technological advantages in the short term. This road is not easy to get through. It is best to independently research and develop.†Currently, China’s shale gas exploration The research and development of mining technology is mainly led by several major oil companies. Unlike the United States, there are a large number of small and medium-sized companies doing technical support. In view of this, Yin Xudong, general manager of Luhai Fuji Energy Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. suggested that PetroChina and Sinopec should share relevant technologies, because from the experience of developed countries, the socialization of oil service is the best way to reduce the cost of shale gas mining. According to Ye Dengsheng, senior technical expert of China Petroleum Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company, in addition to the above technical problems, an important difference between domestic shale gas mining and the United States is that the population around the domestic shale gas storage area is dense, mostly farmland and agriculture. Housing often involves land acquisition and house demolition. In addition, due to the large amount of water resources consumed in shale gas mining and the protection of groundwater, it is not the technology but the water resources that ultimately restricts the development of domestic shale gas. Pipe network monopoly transportation is difficult. "How to transport shale gas in Chongqing in the future? How to transport it out? PetroChina has its own transportation plan and will not be willing to transport other people's shale gas. Even if CNPC agrees, it will use the pipeline monopoly to carry out the price reduction. Other companies may not be able to sell good prices." Yin Xudong is quite worried about this. He believes that even if the country fully masters the shale gas mining technology and realizes large-scale mining, investors who do not possess the pipeline resources due to the monopoly of natural gas pipelines are likely to face the market before the monopoly of PetroChina and Sinopec. The problem that cannot be shipped out. From the shale gas tendering situation, a total of more than 80 companies bid for more than 20 blocks, with an average of 4 companies bidding for each block, and 6 companies bid for each block in the Chengdu-Chongqing area. At present, regardless of the storage volume of shale gas or the development progress, the Sichuan-Yunnan region will undoubtedly become the first region in China to achieve large-scale mining and commercial application. However, the natural gas trunk and the city gas pipeline network in the Sichuan-Yunnan region are basically controlled by PetroChina. In the field interview, the reporter saw that most of the shale gas blocks in Chongqing are located in the old forests of the mountains. Many places do not even have roads, let alone pipeline transportation. Huadian Group Oil and Gas Company participated in the bidding of shale gas in Chongqing. When asked about the future shale gas transportation problem, the company's chief engineer Yang Lan told China Securities Journal that Huadian has rich experience in natural gas distributed generation. The shale gas produced can be generated locally on the Internet or sold to the end market through CNG, LNG, etc. It is the system of grid power generation and power sales that has led the grid to be unwilling to sacrifice its own market share to accommodate distributed generation. The basic control of China's natural gas pipelines is in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec, and the mining and sales are highly concentrated. Under this system, the pipeline control party has no incentive to transport third-party shale gas. In this regard, Hua Wei, director of the Natural Gas Utilization Research Center of South China University of Technology, suggested that the experience of the “separation of plant and network†of the power system should be used to establish an independent enterprise separate from the natural gas developer: the national natural gas pipeline company, and implement the national unified trunk pipeline. Lessons should be drawn from the monopoly of power grid companies. Gas pipeline companies should only be trading platforms rather than buying and selling intermediaries, and only charge for gas transmission. Liu Yijun believes that companies such as PetroChina do monopolize through pipelines, control production upstream, and monopolize sales downstream. On the other hand, it is not realistic to separate the pipelines at this stage, because from the perspective of producers, they know resources best. In order to develop and sell resources, PetroChina Sinopec has the most enthusiasm for building pipelines. "The oil company understands both upstream and downstream, as well as money." Liu Yijun believes that China's natural gas pipeline is far from the intensity of the United States, and the pipeline has a large investment and a long return period. It is temporarily built by a manufacturer like PetroChina Sinopec. The stage also has certain rationality. Then, in the case of the monopoly of the national oil company, how can the private shale gas be smoothly connected to the pipeline? According to Liu Yijun, the National Energy Administration is currently formulating regulations for the construction and operation of natural gas pipeline infrastructure. The core of this regulation is that the pipeline monopoly must allow third-party access. "Even if this regulation comes out, it is very likely that it will be on paper. Because the premise of allowing third-party access is that there is a surplus of pipeline transportation, the prerequisites for the approval of the pipeline project by the NDRC must be the matching of resources, pipelines and users, which means Before the completion of the pipeline, there was basically no surplus left to the later third parties." Liu Yijun analyzed. Therefore, he believes that the way shale gas is treated in the future will be either on-site or liquefied. “The 2007 version of the natural gas utilization policy proposes that LNG cannot be built near the gas source. Now this restriction has been lifted, in order to prepare for the future liquefaction of shale gas. From the experience of foreign countries, the best shale gas The way of utilization is LNG transportation.†The price is difficult to match conventional gas. However, whether it is local liquefaction or power generation, it will increase the cost of shale gas, which will increase the price of conventional natural gas. Many industry insiders worry that even with a subsidy of 0.4 yuan per cubic meter, the economics of shale gas will be difficult to compete with conventional natural gas in the future. If the cost is too high, it will directly hinder the commercial application of shale gas. Taking Puguang gas field in Sichuan as an example, Wang Shouping, deputy general manager of Sinopec Zhongyuan Oilfield, told reporters that the gas production cost of Puguang gas field is 0.45-0.5 yuan/m3, plus high sulfur purification cost 0.5 yuan/m3 and production auxiliary cost. 0.1-0.2 yuan / cubic meter, the cost per cubic meter of Puguang gas field is about 1.1 yuan. Industry insiders predict that this price, even with subsidies, makes shale gas in the Sichuan-Yunnan region difficult to compete. According to statistics from relevant agencies, when the international crude oil price is 80 US dollars/barrel, the duty-paid price of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline entering the Horgos border is 2.20 yuan/m3. At present, it seems that the cost of shale gas in the future may compete with imported natural gas. However, because imported natural gas is linked to international oil prices, in view of the current international economic situation, unless there is a geographical change, there is limited room for international oil prices to rise sharply, and it is difficult to increase the price of imported natural gas in the future. As North American natural gas gradually enters the Chinese market, Li Liang, director of the Policy Research Office of China United Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd., believes that the price of imported natural gas will decline in the future, which will further reduce the competitiveness of domestic shale gas prices. In terms of other gas sources, Sinopec people told reporters that Sinopec is planning to build a new Guangdong-Zhejiang coal-to-gas pipeline. If the coal cost is 150 yuan per ton, the cost of Xinjiang's coal-to-gas is about 1.28 yuan/m3. The coal industry is generally tasked that the Chinese coal market will enter a relatively low-speed growth period in the next 10 years. With the further decline in coal prices, coal-to-gas will be more cost-effective in the future. In the future, a large amount of coal-based gas in the northwest region will further squeeze the existing market for shale gas through long-distance pipelines and LNG. Liu Tienan, director of the National Energy Administration, predicted that in 2015, China’s natural gas consumption will be about 230 billion cubic meters, and the conventional natural gas, coalbed methane, shale gas and unconventional natural gas will be added together. Supply capacity will exceed 260 billion cubic meters. This means that in the next three years, China's natural gas supply will change from short supply to oversupply. In the interview, although the China Securities Journal reporter asked different people about the cost price of shale gas in the future, the industry responded with surprisingly consistent, that is, the price of domestic shale gas before the large-scale mining has not yet been formed. It is still not easy to judge. But one thing is certain, the cost of shale gas will be higher than conventional natural gas. Therefore, if the supply and demand pattern of oversupply in 2015 really emerges, then the higher cost shale gas is likely to become the surplus of 300 million cubic meters. Li Liang suggested that the shale gas mining resource tax should be exempted in the future; in the pilot phase of shale gas industrialization, the state finance will provide subsidies for capacity building. In this way, shale gas can be economically comparable to conventional natural gas and other alternative energy sources. Be wary of shale gas repeating wind power PV coverage "Shale gas is risky, investment needs to be cautious." Before the various problems restricting shale gas development have not been effectively solved, the author suggests that investors should carefully absorb the rough of wind power and photovoltaic industry. Experience, find ways to effectively solve the problems of shale gas resources, grid connection and price, to avoid repeating the wind power and photovoltaic industry. Looking back at the development path of the wind and photovoltaic industry, we can see how similar it is to the current shale gas. After the promulgation of the Renewable Energy Law in 2005, many companies that were originally engaged in thermal power, hydropower investment, and even those unrelated to the energy industry have swarmed into the wind and solar fields. With the introduction of a series of preferential policies such as wind power concession bidding, renewable energy price subsidies, CDM, and Golden Sun Engineering, from 2005 to 2010, the wind power and photovoltaic industries spent five years of enviable gold. Like the wind power and photovoltaic industries, shale gas is also a new energy category, and it has also developed rapidly in the upstream policy-driven, mid-stream financial subsidies and downstream investment favors. It can be foreseen that the technical development path of the two will be similar. Although core technologies such as staged fracturing in shale gas mining have not yet been fully grasped by domestic enterprises, after several years of technical imitation and innovation, mastering relevant technologies should not be difficult. Compared with wind power and photovoltaic, shale gas has a huge advantage, that is, because it has a solid domestic demand, there is no need to worry about any "sLR" or "double". What is certain is that as long as the shale gas can be extracted, it can be shipped out, and the price is fair, it will not be sold. But if it can't solve the similar difficulties with the wind power and photovoltaic industry, the shale gas after 5 years will be unable to escape the fate of the wind power and photovoltaic industry. First, shale gas faces the same "grid-connected" problem as wind power. Looking back over the past five years, the wind power industry can once be described as bursting. Take the wind power machine manufacturing industry as an example. In the most prosperous period, there were 80 enterprises in the industry, and the potential production capacity seriously exceeded the actual market demand. However, due to the delay in the problem of wind power transmission, a large number of installed wind turbines could not be connected to the grid in time, which not only brought economic losses to power generation developers, but also seriously hindered the shipment speed of wind turbine manufacturers. With the development of onshore wind power resources becoming saturated, offshore wind power and the international market have been slow to open, and the wind power manufacturing industry has rapidly fallen from the peak to the bottom. Huarui Wind Power, Goldwind Technology and other companies that have been in the forefront are facing losses and layoffs. Dilemma. Similar to wind power, China's natural gas pipeline network is in the hands of a few companies of PetroChina and Sinopec. Under the existing system, these companies lack the power to accept third-party natural gas. If one day, the shale gas production capacity will be released on a large scale. Unable to solve the "grid-connected" problem, then it will happen in the "dwelling power" dilemma of wind power, which will be repeated in shale gas. Second, shale gas will also face the same economic problems as photovoltaics. So far, although the “double-reverse†in Europe and the United States has greatly reduced the market space of domestic PV companies, it is still difficult for the domestic market to start on a large scale in the short term. One of the main reasons for this is that photovoltaic power generation prices are much higher than conventional thermal power and have to rely on financial subsidies. Similar to the dilemma faced by photovoltaics, due to the complicated geological structure in China, the mining technology still needs to be upgraded, and the construction of the pipe network is still lagging behind, the future price of shale gas is difficult to compete with conventional natural gas, which will inevitably affect the page. The promotion of rock gas in the domestic market. If a private enterprise involved in shale gas tendering cannot invest in shale gas when it invests a large amount of money, or can not sell it at a good price, if it does not persist, or for the pursuit of short-term high premium, or for reduction Investment losses, these private shale gas projects, are likely to be transferred to state-owned enterprises in large quantities. The author suggests that at the outset, private investors should carefully assess the risks that shale gas will face. If you are not sure, then you may want to learn the precedent of smart investors making money from gold mining: instead of investing in high-risk gold mines, it is better to sell jeans and mineral water next to them. If you do, you may be able to In this wave of shale gas investment feast, the small earned a sum.
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