The end of the "11" holiday is over, and the release of macroeconomic operational data for the third quarter will follow. In the context of the second quarter GDP (gross domestic product) year-on-year growth rate fell to 7.5%, the market is very concerned about the economic trend in the third quarter, a number of institutions...
The “11†holiday will be over, and the release of macroeconomic operational data for the third quarter will follow. In the context of the second quarter GDP (gross domestic product) year-on-year growth rate fell to 7.5%, the market is very concerned about the economic trend in the third quarter, many institutions believe that the economic growth in the third quarter is a foregone conclusion, stable Under the influence of the growth policy, GDP growth will increase to around 7.7%. The macroeconomic research team headed by Zhu Jianfang, released by the macroeconomic research team in September, said that in the third quarter of this year, under the effect of the steady growth policy, demand has rebounded, which has driven the industry to rebound, including the secondary industry. The rebound is more obvious. As the real estate market is relatively stable, the growth of the tertiary industry is still moderate due to the control of “three public†consumption and other policies. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be 7.7%.
The National Information Center's macroeconomic situation research group also released a report recently said that since July, the domestic macro economy has seen a clear steady state, and the economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to rebound to around 7.8%. First, because the central government clearly regulates the range target, it has enhanced market confidence; second, it has stimulated market vitality through deepening reform; third, the company's inventory replenishment has accelerated.
Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, believes that the upcoming September data will show that the real economy activity remains strong, but the growth momentum may be slightly weaker. Specifically, the growth rate of imports and exports will remain stable and real estate activities will continue. Moderate growth, industrial production will increase by 10% year-on-year. Overall, GDP growth in the third quarter was 7.7%. In addition, research institutions such as AVIC Securities and Bank of Communications also forecast that GDP growth in the third quarter will reach 7.7%.
During the “11†period, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in September, China’s manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. 3 months rebound. The organization generally believes that the continuous recovery of PMI has created favorable conditions for the growth of GDP growth in the third quarter.
Although the economic recovery is a foregone conclusion, the economic structure is still more serious. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the continuous rise of PMI indicates that China's manufacturing economy continues to rise steadily, but the problem is uneven development, and large and medium-sized enterprises are stabilizing and consolidating. It is still difficult for small and micro enterprises to operate, so we must continue to increase support for small and micro enterprises in financing and reducing burdens.
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