Manufacturing PMI was 50.3% in March, and the economy rebounded slightly

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Research Center, was 50.3% in March 2014, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. From the 12 sub-indices, the expected index of production, new orders, new export orders, purchases, raw material inventory, finished goods inventory, imports, employees and production and operation activities rebounded compared with the previous month. The import and new export orders index rose by more than 1 percentage point. The backlog of orders, purchase price and supplier delivery time index fell, with the purchase price index falling the most, with a margin of 3.3 percentage points.

Special analyst Zhang Liqun said: "The PMI index rose slightly in March, ending a three-month decline. Although it includes seasonal factors, it still indicates that the future economic growth will stabilize. Among them, the import and new export orders index is relatively large. The improvement indicates that the foreign trade situation is getting better in the future. The raw material purchase price index has dropped significantly, indicating that the company is still cautious about the market, and the inventory activity is expected to continue."

The production index was 52.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the production indices of large enterprises, medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises are all higher than 50%, with indices of 54%, 50.4% and 50.7% respectively.

The new order index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the new order index of large enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 51.9%; medium and small enterprises are lower than 50%, which are 48.9% and 47.5% respectively.

The new export order index was 50.1%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the new export orders index of large enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 50.9%; medium and small enterprises are lower than 50%, which are 47.5% and 49.1% respectively.

The backlog index was 44.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the backlog index of large, medium and small enterprises is less than 50%, and the index is between 42.8% and 45.5%.

The finished goods inventory index was 48.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the inventory index of finished products of large, medium and small enterprises is less than 50%, and the index is between 46.8% and 49.1%.

The purchase volume index was 50.3%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the purchasing volume index of large enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 51%; for medium-sized enterprises, it is 50%; for small enterprises, it is lower than 50%, which is 47.9%.

The import index was 49.1%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the import index of large, medium and small enterprises is less than 50%, and the index is between 47% and 49.8%.

The purchase price index was 44.4%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of firm size, the purchase price indices of large, medium and small enterprises are all below 50%; 43.1%, 46.3% and 47.4% respectively.

The raw material inventory index was 47.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the raw material inventory index of large, medium and small enterprises is less than 50%, and the index is between 47.5% and 48.4%.

The employee index was 48.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the index of employees in large, medium and small enterprises is less than 50%, and the index is between 47.6% and 48.9%.

The supplier's delivery time index was 49.8%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. In terms of enterprise scale, the supplier's delivery time index of large enterprises is higher than 50%, which is 50.2%; the medium and small enterprise index is lower than 50%, which is 49.5% and 48% respectively.

The expected index of production and operation activities was 62.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the expected index of production and operation activities of large, medium and small enterprises is higher than 50%, and the index is between 61% and 63.6%.

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Survey Description

1. Explanation of main indicators

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled from the monthly survey results of the company's purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production, and circulation. It is the first international monitoring trend for macroeconomic trends. One of the sex indexes has a strong predictive and early warning effect. PMI usually takes 50% as the cut-off point of economic strength. When PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the expansion of manufacturing economy; below 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy.

2. Scope of investigation

It covers 31 major industries in the manufacturing sector of the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T4754-2011). Since January 2013, the survey sample has expanded from 820 to 3,000.

3. Survey method

The manufacturing purchasing manager survey adopts the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, which is based on the major categories of the manufacturing industry. The sample size of the industry is allocated according to the added value of the added value of the manufacturing industry. The sample use in the layer and the main business of the enterprise. The probability of business income is proportional to the extraction.

The survey was organized and implemented by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of Statistics. The national statistical network direct reporting system was used to conduct a monthly questionnaire survey on the enterprise procurement manager.

4. Calculation method

The manufacturing purchasing manager questionnaire covers production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, imports, purchase prices, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations, etc. 12 Questions. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, which is the percentage of the number of companies that are responding positively plus half of the percentage of the answer.

PMI is a composite index calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (classification indices). The five sub-indices and their weights are based on their prior impact on the economy. Specifically, it includes: new order index, weight is 30%; production index, weight is 25%; employee index, weight is 20%; supplier delivery time index, weight is 15%; raw material inventory index, weight It is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is the inverse index, and the inverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The Purchasing Manager Survey is a monthly survey that is subject to seasonal fluctuations and data fluctuations. The PMI composite index and each sub-index released today are seasonally adjusted data.

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