According to the October China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on November 1, the index has rebounded for four consecutive months, hitting a new high in 18 months. "This shows that China's manufacturing economy continues to be stable and good." The National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center is advanced...
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on November 1st showed that the index has rebounded for four consecutive months, a record high in 18 months. "This shows that China's manufacturing economy continues to be stable and good," said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The manufacturing PMI is an internationally popular leading indicator of macroeconomics, and its direction tends to indicate the direction of the manufacturing economy and the entire macro economy. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believes that the PMI index continued to rise in October, indicating that the steady state of China's economic growth has been initially established.
According to the analysis report from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI index of large manufacturing enterprises has continued to rise since July, reaching 52.3% in October. The mid-sized companies' PMI index was basically stable in July and August, and has rebounded in the past two months. In October, it rebounded to more than 50%, up 0.5 percentage points from September; the small business PMI index fluctuated slightly in the last three months. "It shows that the economic situation has stabilized and has been transmitted to large and medium-sized enterprises." The report pointed out.
The rebound in production is a major factor in the recovery of manufacturing PMI. In October, the manufacturing production index was 54.4%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. It rose for four consecutive months, the highest point since May 2012, and the main driving force for the continuous recovery of the manufacturing PMI.
Zhao Qinghe analyzed that this was mainly due to the timely implementation of a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth, adjust the structure, and promote reforms that the Party Central Committee and the State Council issued in a timely manner. Now the policy effects are gradually emerging, and the company expects stability and confidence in development, which has effectively promoted Enterprise production rebounded.
With the acceleration of production, the company's raw material procurement activities have become more active. In October, China's manufacturing procurement index was 52.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. It was above the critical point for three consecutive months, a new high in nine months. .
At the same time, the domestic and international markets have also experienced a certain degree of recovery, which is reflected in the continuous improvement of the demand side. In October, China’s new manufacturing orders index was 52.5%, which remained above 52% for three consecutive months, at a relatively high level since May last year. Among them, the new export order index reflecting the international market demand remained above the critical point of 50% for three consecutive months.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing pointed out in the analysis report that the new order index was above 52% for three consecutive months, and the new export order index remained above 50% for three consecutive months. Although these two indexes fell slightly from last month, they still belonged to normal fluctuations after returning to a higher level. In general, the basic trend of continuous improvement in demand side since the second half of the year has not changed.
“In October, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded for four consecutive months, the driving force for the PMI rise was not balanced, and the other sub-indices other than production rebounded slightly weaker.†Zhao Qinghe analysis, the October employee index, the main raw material inventory index The growth of the supplier's delivery time index was unchanged from the previous month, and the new order index fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
"From the analysis of the growth of investment, exports and consumption, China's economic growth has initially stabilized at around 7.5%, but the foundation is still not stable enough, and the market-led endogenous growth capacity is still weak." Zhang Liqun pointed out.
It is worth noting that the PMI of small enterprises has declined somewhat in October and continues to be below the critical point. Zhao Qinghe emphasized that this indicates that small and micro enterprises are still facing many difficulties in production and operation, and they must implement the State Council’s efforts to promote the development of small and micro enterprises. Measures to further consolidate the foundation of China’s stable economy.
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