The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the main economic data for May on the 14th. The market generally expects that the consumer price index (CPI) in May is likely to hit a new high, and interest rate hike expectations are strong. Although the previously released May PMI data showed that all the sub-indices have dropped, indicating that inflation expectations have eased, but due to food prices and hikes, institutions generally predict that CPI growth in May may be 5.3% from April. Rose to around 5.5%. In the composition of CPI, food prices accounted for the largest proportion. The National Food Bureau's main food price data for 50 cities in May showed that food prices rose in May, and the increase and scope expanded. According to the latest data on June 4, the main food price increase range increased in the second half of May. Among them, the price of meat, especially pork, continued to rise, while the price of vegetables that had fallen back before also rebounded sharply. The increase of leafy vegetables such as Chinese cabbage and rapeseed Nearly 20%. “Food prices have risen in anti-season since mid-May, pork prices continue to rise in anti-season, while drought has exacerbated seasonal increases in aquatic products due to fishing, and non-food prices may maintain recent historically high averages. Therefore, 5 The monthly CPI may hit a new high in the current round of inflation, and the year-on-year increase will reach 5.3% to 5.5%.†CICC’s research report is forecast. Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, also believes that although the PPI fell for the second consecutive month, the CPI in May may break through the previous highs and reach about 5.5% under the joint promotion of the hikes and food prices. Due to the high inflationary pressures in May and June, institutions generally said that monetary policy will continue to maintain a tightening trend, and interest rate hike expectations in June are strong. CICC said it expects a rate hike in June, while the central bank will continue to use quantitative tools, including the deposit reserve ratio, to control currency and credit growth. The recent inflationary trend is more than expected, which will put pressure on inflation control in the second half of the year. The policy will be maintained in the third quarter, and it is possible to raise interest rates once again in the third quarter. Dong Xianan, the leading international economist in Beijing, told reporters that the central bank may raise interest rates this week, and may even raise the reserve ratio after the data is released next week. Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in an interview with the "Learning Times" hosted by the Central Party School that the negative spillover effect of the quantitative easing policy at the international level is very obvious. If the asset bubble and inflationary pressures continue to increase, in order to cope with the stagflation situation, countries around the world may be forced to enter the interest rate channel.
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