From "90 days see" to "see you one year later", what signal did Zhu Xiaohu's change pass?

Zhu Xiaohu made two headlines in two days. The day before yesterday, he accepted an interview with Wall Street and changed his mouth to say that ofo and Mobai would not merge.

Yesterday, with the investment partner Ma Huateng in the circle of friends, the two sides of the enthusiasm, in the circle of friends, you come and go, let the people who eat me to watch the lively.

Among them, the most interesting thing is that Zhu Xiaohu has completely changed his view on the competition pattern of shared bicycles. After investing ino last year, Zhu gave a seemingly succinct prophecy that the shared bike would end the war within 90 days, and the winner was the ofo he bet.

At that time, with the help of Didi merged and swallowed Uber China’s Suiyuan, the drop investor Zhu Xiaohu was ranked among the top investors in China. His personal guess is like the famous prophet Karl Kas in Greek mythology. The predictions of the Trojan War are generally put on the crown of authority, and there should be many in the industry.

However, less than a year later, Zhu changed his previous attitude and converged the offensive. He believed that the cycling industry first cleared the scene. The two giants ofo and the war of Mobai were far from the end of the game, ending from 90 days. The battle became "watching after one year" and the gas field was weak.

It is true that as the only seed player in the shared bicycle field, betting ono is an absolutely cost-effective gamble, and Zhu Xiaohu has already won the prize. But for ofo and his opponent, Mobai, the life and death contest between the two beasts continues. Ato investors in this key node suddenly changed their mouths, what signal was passed?

Behind the change: capital forces dominate different development models

For the future competition pattern of shared bicycles, Zhu Xiaohu now judges this:

The next step is to clear the field first, leaving two PKs in the end; Moby and ofo will not consider the merger in the short term; as for how long to play in the future, see the capital's tolerance for efficiency, there is no chance to change.

When answering the question, Zhu Xiaohu did not make any clear predictions about the winning hands and time of ofo and Mobai.

This is very different from last September’s attitude. At that time, Zhu Xiaohu said, "The biggest advantage of theo is the low cost. A car in Mobaibu, ofo can be used for 10 cars." "The 90-day shared bicycle war will end."

Before and after the change, it is clear that capital has become the dominant force in different modes of sharing bicycles.

Whether it was the student Dai Wei or the journalist Hu Wei, the two had no successful entrepreneurial experience before. Therefore, when theo and Mobai were founded, the early investors had a great influence on their path choice. For example, Mobin investor Li Bin personally served as chairman of Mobai.

Zhu Xiaohu’s influence on ofo should be quite large. Later, in an interview, Dai Wei regarded Zhu Xiaohu’s investment of 10 million as the most important turning point of ofo. "After getting the money from the Jinsha River, our expansion began."

It can be said that Zhu Xiaohu’s view of ending the battle in three months may be one of the reasons why ofo insisted on producing low-end small yellow cars at low cost, and occupied the market through large-scale paving and increasing the speed of delivery. The logic of growth in the short term, the number of deliveries, and the size of users have become key success factors.

Unlike ofo, the founder of Moby bicycle, Hu Wei, has long realized that sharing bicycles is a long-term battle, “we are in a babyhood”. Therefore, Moby sacrificed the pursuit of short-term scale and speed, and chose quality more. A reliable, manageable, two-way communication smart bicycle.

However, the small yellow car that is no different from the ordinary bicycle is not suitable for the sharing economy. The high loss rate and high operation cost of the small yellow car have become unbearable.

Interestingly, according to Zhu Xiaohu's previous statement, the cost of a motor bike is ten times that of the ofo. Before Mobye’s latest round of $600 million in financing, it’s said that the two companies are about the same level of financing. The amount of ono in the market should be 10 times that of Moby, but according to data from different third parties, Whether it is covering the city, the size of the user, or the order quantity, the two are almost in the same order. The reason is very simple, that is, the damage rate of theo is too high, and the cost after the scale of the Moby is far higher than the ofO. ten times.

Nowadays, even the ofo investors have changed their mouths, and the competition pattern of sharing bicycles has changed from "90 days see" to "one year later". The fact that it did not come as expected has actually verified the mistakes Zhu Xiaohu prejudged in the past. , and the deviation of the oo rush to the low-cost traffic route.

Perhaps ofo has to go on the road to learning from the Mobai model, and the low-quality small yellow car with a life span of only a few months is like using a millet rifle to fight against the ship. The password lock that ofo later introduced is actually a sign that gradually moves closer to the Mobai route.

The winning hand lies in the commercial essence: vehicle cost vs. operation and maintenance cost, efficiency vs. growth, scale vs technology

Zhu Xiaohu also said in an interview yesterday that when the war of theo is seen, it depends on two factors. First, look at the tolerance of capital for efficiency, and secondly, whether the profit model is established. This is the commercial essence.

Yesterday, the dispute between Ma Huateng and Zhu Xiaohu actually focused on the commercial nature of shared bicycles, involving cost, efficiency, technology, growth and so on.

In terms of cost, Zhu Xiaohu emphasized last year that "the most important thing in the current Chinese Internet is that the cost is low. The low cost is king." And stressed that the cost of the bicycle is 10 times that of the small yellow car.

It must be said that Zhu Xiaohu had a deviation from the definition of the concept of shared bicycle cost last year. The cost of sharing bicycles should include two parts: first, the one-time cost of bicycles, and the second, later operation and maintenance costs, but the second long-term The cost was ignored by Zhu.

Let's take a look at the cost of a one-time purchase. When speaking at the Chaos Institute in February this year, Zhu Xiaohu revealed that the cost of a small yellow car is 200 yuan. With the addition of the password lock to the small yellow car, the cost of the small yellow car may increase.

The cost of intelligently sharing bicycles will actually be greatly reduced after the scale is formed. According to Chen Huaiyuan, the founder of Xiaolan Bicycle, the cost of the small blue bicycle is 1,000 yuan. It can be inferred that other smart bicycles including Mobai should not be high.

Then, let's take a look at the life of the bicycle.

In February of this year, Zhu Xiaohu said in a speech at Chaos Institute: "A bicycle costs two hundred yuan. On the campus, every ride of five cents, you can ride five times a day, you will receive five dollars, two hundred dollars may I earned it in forty days. With the cost of maintenance, as well as theft and damage, it may take three months and the cost will be earned."

Based on this rough calculation: an oro bicycle can earn 200 yuan every 40 days, just enough; if this bicycle has no theft, loss, operation and maintenance costs, then it can earn 450 yuan in three months. However, Zhu Xiaohu said that the three months just earned the cost of the vehicle, indicating that in this 450 yuan, 250 yuan is the cost of loss, theft, and operation and maintenance. In other words, the annual operating cost of a bicycle reaches about 1,000 yuan.

In other words, the replacement and damage cost of the small yellow car is almost equivalent to the price of a whole car. That is to say, the hardware investment of the bicycle should be similar in one year.

The next operation and maintenance cost is the big one. The small yellow car that underestimates the evil of human nature actually ignores this cost. Increasingly expensive manpower and maintenance costs will be an unbearable and expensive expense. According to the founder Lei Houyi, the first batch of Wukong bicycles was also a mechanical lock. After the market was put on, the bicycles were not seen. The cost of manpower was too high and they gave up.

Next, consider the issues of efficiency, growth, technology and scale.

Compared to Mobai, ofo is more eager for speed. Speed ​​and scale are naturally tempting to resist. For example, Zhu Xiaohu's investment in the handle network, drip, etc. are products of scale and speed.

However, the hunger for speed and scale has made investors successful and has failed to taste it. Perhaps every investor has a path dependence. For example, Didi is relying on the platform model to defeat the easy access to small and beautiful high-end routes.

Ofo has also been pursuing speed. For example, recently, signing Luhan as a spokesperson is indeed a wonderful game. As a star of influence and fan energy landing in Guinness, Luyi’s appeal is indeed given too in the short term. Come to many incremental users.

However, just as people can't step into the same river twice, investors may not be able to look at two projects in succession. After all, investment is originally a game that dances on a highly uncertain risk.

From Didi to ofo, Zhu Xiaohu used the same investment logic, but ignored the essential difference between Didi and shared bicycles. As the user and owner of the car, the driver has always controlled the car use process. However, sharing the bicycle, the owner ofo can not control the use of bicycles, therefore, must use better quality, smart lock, positioning technology, Internet of Things, red envelope incentives and other mechanisms to reduce wear and tear in use.

From the technical reserve, the ofo really falls far behind the Mobai.

For example, the earliest ofo used mechanical locks, and many bicycles were privately owned by users. Therefore, ofo is now replaced with a so-called "smart lock" based on tokens, but Ma Huateng said that tokens are not smart, vehicles and locks are not really The intelligent attribute is therefore compared to the "Little Smart" in the mobile Internet era by "Ma Xiaoteng". "The PHS must be abolished." "The cheaper and more cost-effective function machine will inevitably be vulnerable under the wave of intelligence. This is No doubt."

Bicycles that are not intelligent, like locusts, are uncontrollable. Inventories of bicycles cannot be managed in an orderly manner, and incremental bicycles continue to expand. Later, huge manpower costs are required to be put into operation and maintenance. In particular, the number of bicycles put on both sides is as high as several million, and the number will increase to several thousand vehicles in the future. It will erupt like a mudslide.

Then compare the Mobai, the smart version of the high-priced passenger car, will sacrifice speed when it is just on the line, but the advantage in the later operation and maintenance is reflected, the smart bicycle built the world's largest mobile IoT system, through the big Data, artificial intelligence platforms, such as the same invisible hand of God, have built a growth and expandable ecosystem of millions of bicycles that were originally mechanical.

From the point of view of the speed and scale of the launch, the ofo, which takes a short-and-fast approach, starts faster, but in terms of technical level and efficiency dimension, Moby, which values ​​long-term interests, has come to the forefront.

Soon after the rise of the shared bicycle boom, two super unicorns with over 10 billion valuations have been spawned. The hand of capital, the hand of the market, and the hand of the government have jointly created this seemingly rich, but bloody feast. When the winner is picked up, the loser is so tired. Of course, since the power of capital is still madly overweight, it is still too early to predict the situation. From the perspective of consumers, of course, the more intense the competition, the more profitable users. This will be a protracted war. The prophecy will never catch up with the change. The balance of victory and defeat is also swinging around. It was once regarded as a gift and killer of the winner. It may be just a Trojan horse to achieve each other.

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