Analysis of National Chlor-alkali Industry Capacity Expansion in the First Half of 2012

In the first half of the year, the country's new ion-exchange membrane caustic soda plant was 1.67 million tons/year, and the production capacity was 340,000 tons/year; the calcium carbide PVC plant increased by 0.92 million tons/year, while 500,000 tons of capacity was withdrawn from the market. The expansion of production capacity in the industry has slowed down significantly.

Analysts believe that under the combined effects of continuous increase in cost pressures, reduction in the utilization rate of large-capacity production facilities, and insufficient supporting role of downstream demand industries, the operating pressure of the chlor-alkali and related products market will remain large in the second half of the year. As the country continues to increase in energy consumption, cleaner production, and market competition, the withdrawal of backward devices will continue.

The data also shows that in the first half of the year, only 4 of the 38 companies listed in the chlor-alkali and related industries achieved net profit growth year-on-year; while the other 16 companies achieved overall profit, the net profit dropped significantly year-on-year; the remaining 18 companies have experienced different levels. Loss, some companies have serious losses.

The four companies with net profit growth are Hubei Yihua, Zhangzhou Dahua, Luxi Chemical and Yangnong Chemical. By observing its business structure, it can be seen that except for Hubei Yihua, the chlor-alkali business of the remaining three companies does not dominate. Although Hubei Yihua's performance has risen, it has risen only 1.96%, while the same period last year increased by 41.73%.

The poor performance of listed companies is mainly due to the overall downturn in the industry. In the first half of last year, the average price of domestic ethylene PVC was around 8,400 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide method PVC was basically maintained at 7,900 yuan/ton. Since the third quarter of last year, the price of PVC has dropped significantly and is still hovering low. As of September 12, the average price of domestic ethylene PVC was 6,966 yuan/ton, and that of calcium carbide PVC was 6,470 yuan/ton.

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