The high coal price keeps the contradiction between coal and electricity increasingly prominent. One party is a coal enterprise that has earned a lot of money, and one party is an electric enterprise with a more severe form of operation. Under this background, the expectation of coal-electricity linkage is continuously strengthened. Analysts said that due to the increase in coal prices, most of the power generation group's thermal power sector continued to suffer losses overall in the first half of the year, and the efficiency of the power generation industry fell sharply. In the third quarter, coal prices once hit a new high in the year. Although coal prices have declined and stabilized under policy control, it is still difficult to fall sharply. Coal prices in the fourth quarter may continue to fluctuate at high levels, which means electricity companies. This year's performance is not optimistic. Therefore, the industry believes that coal-electricity linkage is likely to start at the end of the year. The losses caused by high-cost electricity companies need to be adjusted by raising electricity prices, and this will alleviate the contradiction between coal and electricity. Thermal power companies' profits have fallen sharply Since this year, coal prices have remained at a high level. Especially in the third quarter of the peak summer season, coal demand exceeded expectations. At the same time, due to environmental protection and safety inspections, coal production capacity was insufficiently released, and coal prices rose further, setting a new high this year. Since the end of September, the surge in coal prices has led to an increase in regulatory expectations. On September 21, after the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Coal and Electricity Oil and Gas Transportation", 22 coal enterprises such as Shenhua and China Coal lowered their coal prices before the National Day holiday. Coal prices are expected to stabilize gradually in October. However, the national coal price index in September still increased by nearly 10 yuan / ton compared with August, an increase of 2.0%. The sharp rise in coal prices has greatly squeezed the profit margin of the power industry. While coal enterprises have earned a lot of money, the profits of thermal power companies have dropped significantly. The data shows that the net asset return rate of the thermal power industry in the first half of 2017 was 1.8%, only 3.6% after the annualization, which has dropped to a stage low. Judging from the forecast of the three quarterly reports of listed power companies, the performance of power companies is still not optimistic. Huadian Energy announced that it has estimated that the company's operating results will be depreciated in the first three quarters of 2017, and the net profit attributable to owners of the parent company is about 390 million yuan. In this regard, the company said that due to the sharp increase in coal price and the decrease in the company's foreign investment income during the period, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was reported during the reporting period. The company's net profit for the first three quarters is expected to be 80 million yuan - 120 million yuan, down 84% -90% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the coal price increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, resulting in the loss of the company's main business thermal power business. Ye Chun, deputy director of the Ministry of Industry Development and Environmental Resources of CEC, said that in the second half of the year, the country's power supply capacity will show an overall surplus and a relatively surplus trend in some regions. The price of thermal coal continues to operate at a high level. The market price of electricity is greatly reduced, and the scale continues to expand. It is difficult to effectively reduce the cost of power generation. It is expected that thermal power enterprises will continue to suffer losses, and the production and operation of power generation enterprises will continue to face severe difficulties and challenges. Coal-electricity linkage is expected to start at the end of the year. It is necessary to mention that as the coal price continues to rise, the on-grid tariff has been raised this year. In July, the national coal-fired grid benchmark price was raised by about 1 minute/kWh, which only covered 1/4 of the increase in coal prices, and the net asset yield of the thermal power industry was limited. Hua Chuang Securities analyst Wang Xiuqiang once told the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to factors such as high coal costs, the thermal power industry benefits began to decline in 2016. At present, the current situation of the bleak operation of the thermal power industry has been valued by the state management department. It is improving the operation of the industry through the adjustment of the electricity price structure, the resolution of coal-electricity contradictions, and the return of coal prices. Despite the upward adjustment of on-grid tariffs, coal prices have been intensified due to the high coal prices, and this pattern has made the market's expectation of coal-electricity linkages in 2018 strengthened. "Based on the current operation of the thermal power industry, the probability of coal-electricity linkage implementation is relatively high at the end of the year." Xu Qiang, an analyst at Guotai Ju'an, believes that according to the coal-electricity linkage mechanism formulated by the state, the price of electricity should be raised theoretically, and the cost of thermal power industry is urgently needed to pass electricity prices. Adjust for grooming. He pointed out that according to the current linkage formula, if the coal-electricity linkage is started in early 2018, it should be raised by 1.6 points/kWh on the basis of the price on January 1, 2014. Since the coal-electricity linkage in early 2016, the coal-electricity linkage has been lowered by 3 points. On July 1, the national coal-fired power price was raised by about 1 point. Therefore, the theoretical value of the coal-fired power grid price increase in early next year was 3.64 points. However, from the past implementation, the single price increase is within 3 points and below, so it is expected that the adjustment should be within 3 points. "According to the increase in coal price, it is indeed necessary to start coal-electricity linkage." Zhang Feilong, a researcher at the Yimei Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, but it may also be based on disguised adjustments, such as further cleaning up the taxes and fees of power generation companies. This is also good for the next step in promoting the reform of the power system.
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